Sponsor:

Ameren Services

Research Team:

Wooseung Jang, James S. Noble, Matthew Roman

Universities Involved:

University of Missouri

Start Date:

01/01/08

End Date:

12/31/08

Summary:

The objective of this project was to create a precise and dynamic forecasting model which could easily be applied to several time-series at varying levels of aggregation. The focus was to create a reusable and effective forecasting tool that could be utilized for the everyday inventory control needs of AmereUE.
Ameren annually procures over $200 million in major materials and services (i.e. transformers, cable & wire, line construction, wood poles, pole line hardware, etc.). Overall customer response time and cost will be significantly reduced with improved demand forecasting and project visibility. Issues that need to be considered include demand patterns, internal projects, external events such as residential and commercial construction trends, and storm response inventory strategy.

The objective of this project is to develop models and approaches to improve the demand forecasts for Ameren’s major materials and services (i.e. transformers, cable & wire, line construction, wood poles, pole line hardware, etc.) over a rolling 12 month planning interval. Improved demand forecasts will enable budget owners and engineers to better respond to material needs and to implement more effective inventory control strategies.