Forecast and Capacity Planning for Nogales’ Ports of Entry – AZ08-ADOT

Center-Designated Project: University of Louisville – CDP-03 UL Strategic Research 02-03
June 15, 2015
Strategic Value of AITs (e.g, RFID) in Depot Environments – OSU06-FAA AIT
June 15, 2015

Forecast and Capacity Planning for Nogales’ Ports of Entry – AZ08-ADOT

This project develops time sereis models to conduct forecasts, develops regression models and conducts simulation models of a process.


Arizona Department of Transportation

Research Team:

Rene Villalobos, Laura Vazquez, Liangjie Xue, Arnie Maltz, Octavio Sanchez

Universities Involved:

Arizona State University

Start Date:


End Date:



The objective of this project is to develop multivariate regression models to identify related influential
factors to the traffic volume. Time series models were developed to conduct the forecast of traffic volume. Simulation models were built to assess the capacity utilization
The two international points of entry connecting the cities of Nogales, Arizona with Nogales, Sonora in Mexico are vital for the economy of these two cities, the region and extremely important for trade between the United States and Mexico. Those ports are the Mariposa POE and the DeConcini POE. In order to meet the expected increase in traffic at the international ports of entry in Nogales, the federal government and the State of Arizona are considering the expansion of the capacity of both ports in the near future. Sizing this new capacity requires forecasting the demand for each of the ports of entry as a foundation for developing appropriate expansion plans.
The forecasts showed that the future commercial traffic (mainly truck) might increase between 30% and 50% within a 15-year time frame, when compared to the number of crossings recorded in 2008, depending on the change of external factors captured in the forecast models. A simulation model was also built to assess infrastructure utilization under different traffic volumes.