Sponsor:

Crane – Naval Surface Warfare Ctr.

Research Team:

Gail W. DePuy, Cynthia Rae Edlin

Universities Involved:

University of Louisville

Start Date:

07/01/04

End Date:

06/30/05

Summary:

This research develops a forecasting model to predict replacement part requisitions on a monthly or quarterly basis for the Naval Surface Warfare Center (NSWC) in Crane, Indiana. The replacement parts are components in the AN/SLQ-32 Electronic Warfare (EW) system, and provides electronic support for radio frequency bands in the detection of incoming anti-ship missile (ASM) terminal guidance radars
The proposed project is in response to the goals and objectives established by NSWC-Crane Code 807 management to develop a computer-based tool to forecast the demand for replacement parts. Improved forecasts can be used by the production planning/inventory control manager to minimize the number of overstocked and understocked parts. Minimizing overstocked parts will directly reduce costs while minimizing understocked parts will improve the fleet’s readiness. Because the demand for replacement parts is very different during wartime than during normal, peacetime operations, the proposed forecasting tool will develop predictions based on both historical demand data as well as the user’s knowledge of future world events.
The multiple linear regression analysis resulted in the best forecasting model and was developed using past requisition demand and steaming hours to predict the quarterly requisition demand.